SysSim

Planetary Populations

Exoplanet Populations, Kepler, Hierarchical Bayesian models, Approximate Bayesian Computing, Machine Learning, Gaussian Process Emulators

Occurrence rates of planets orbiting M Stars: applying ABC to Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2, and 2MASS data

We present robust planet occurrence rates for Kepler planet candidates around M stars for planet radii $R_p=0.5−4 R_\oplus$ and orbital periods P=0.5−256 days using the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) technique. This work incorporates the …

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems: III. Eccentricity and Mutual Inclination Distributions of AMD–Stable Planetary Systems

The angular momentum deficit (AMD) of a planetary system is a measure of its orbital excitation and a predictor of long--term stability. We adopt the AMD-stability criteria to constrain the orbital architectures for exoplanetary systems. …

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. II: An Intrinsic Relation between Planetary System Occurrence and Spectral Type for Kepler's FGK Dwarfs

The Kepler mission observed thousands of transiting exoplanet candidates around hundreds of thousands of FGK dwarf stars. [He, Ford, & Ragozzine (2019)](arXiv:1907.07773) applied forward modelling to infer the distribution of intrinsic architectures …

Occurrence Rates of Planets Orbiting M Stars: Applying ABC to Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2, and 2MASS Data

We present robust planet occurrence rates for Kepler planet candidates around M stars for planet radii Rp=0.5−4 R⊕ and orbital periods P=0.5−256 days using the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) technique. This work incorporates the final …

Occurrence Rates of Planets Orbiting FGK Stars: Combining Kepler DR25, Gaia DR2, and Bayesian Inference

Press Coverage Extrasolar Earths May Circle 1 In 6 Sunlike Stars, Says New NASA Kepler Study: Forbes, Aug 15, 2019. Wow! What if 1 in 4 sunlike stars has an Earth?: EarthSky, Aug 23, 2019. Analysis shows 1-in-6 stars may host Earth-size planets: Astronomy Now, Aug 16, 2019. How many Earth-size planets are around sun-like stars?: Penn State, Aug 14, 2019.

Architectures of Exoplanetary Systems. I: A Clustered Forward Model for Exoplanetary Systems around Kepler's FGK Stars

Improving the Accuracy of Planet Occurrence Rates from Kepler Using Approximate Bayesian Computation